Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Starling MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caratini singled to center, Larnach scored.6–5
- 9Bell homered to right (442 feet), Arcia scored and Clemens scored.6–4
- 8Jensen hit sacrifice fly to left, Pasquantino scored.6–1
- 5Marte homered to center (441 feet), Thomas scored and Garcia scored.5–1
- 5Garcia singled to right, Jensen scored, Thomas to third.2–1
- 4Loftin doubled to right, Pasquantino scored.1–1
- 2Kreidler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clemens scored, Lewis out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -119 / MIN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- KC: Elo 50.8%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −16 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 21st of 301483 | Elo rating | 147028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–31 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35–1 | 36–24–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 21–24 MIN in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 45.