Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jung walked, Díaz scored, Burger to second, Lopez to third.6–4
- 10Díaz doubled to center, Duran scored.5–4
- 8Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Carter scored, Lopez to second, Helman to third.4–4
- 7Loftin tripled to center, Caglianone scored.3–4
- 7Burger homered to left center (399 feet).3–3
- 6Thomas singled to center, Collins scored.2–3
- 5Caglianone singled to right, Pasquantino scored, Marte to third.2–2
- 4Lopez singled to right, Langford scored, Carter to second, Duran thrown out at home. Texas Rangers challenged call on the field was upheld2–1
- 4Carter walked, Nimmo scored, Duran to second, Langford to third.1–1
- 2Collins singled to center, Caglianone scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–37 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–34–6 | 30–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–9 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.