Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager grounded out to first, Pederson scored.3–5
- 6Caglianone homered to right center (431 feet), Pasquantino scored.2–5
- 6Pasquantino hit a ground rule double, Garcia scored.2–3
- 6Garcia tripled to right, Jensen scored.2–2
- 5Caglianone homered to right center (421 feet).2–1
- 4Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Jensen.2–0
- 4Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Jensen.2–0
- 2Burger singled to left, Langford scored, Duran to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / KC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +11 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +3 Elo | TEX 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–36 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–33–6 | 30–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–8 KC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.