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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Away

Red Sox

27-36

1–6

at

Home

Yankees

38-26

BOS 43%NYY 57%

You didn't pick this one.

Yankee Stadium · ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%BOSStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Red Sox
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4
  • Ranger SuarezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Cam SchlittlerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (411 feet), Grisham scored and Volpe scored.1–6
  • 8Grisham singled to right, Rosario scored.1–3
  • 8Bellinger homered to right center (394 feet).1–2
  • 6Contreras doubled to left, Rafaela scored.1–1
  • 5Goldschmidt singled to right, Caballero scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 57%

LeanHit
BOS 43%NYY 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 57%
ML BOS +123 / NYY -149
Pre-line forecast
NYY 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 59%
Ratings vs. market
+1.6 pts
NYY: Elo 58.8%, market 57.2%
Fair odds
NYY -133
BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYYWhy
Team rating15131553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+5+8BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +61 EloNYY 58.8%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 59.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 59.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNYY
25th of 304.0Runs scored5.06th of 30
9th of 304.1Runs allowed3.64th of 30
13th of 30−0.1Margin+1.44th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 106–47th of 30
10th of 3017–14Road vs home18–126th of 30
6th of 301506Opponent Elo149720th of 30
10th of 301513Elo rating15533rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Red SoxYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSNYY
Run line27–3533–30
Last 106–44–6
Favorite12–2528–28
Underdog15–105–2
Overs–unders28–31–327–31–5
Overs–unders, last 105–3–26–3–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 26–20 NYY in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 46.