Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin homered to left (388 feet).5–7
- 8Mullins homered to right center (386 feet), Simpson scored.4–7
- 8Rafaela homered to left (395 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Duran scored.4–5
- 8Durbin homered to left (415 feet).1–5
- 6Díaz singled to left, Fortes scored, Walls to second.0–5
- 5Vilade hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored.0–4
- 5Slater doubled to third, Walls scored, Díaz to third.0–3
- 5Díaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Fortes scored, Walls to third.0–2
- 3Walls hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML BOS +135 / TB -163
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 23–91st of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 12th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–37 | 37–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 22–15 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34–3 | 30–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 19–25 TB in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 44.