Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting3-4
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mayer doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Durbin scored.3–4
- 6Palacios singled to center, Williamson scored, Fortes to second.1–4
- 4Fortes doubled to left, Williamson scored.1–3
- 4Williamson doubled to left, Mullins scored.1–2
- 4Mullins singled to right, Vilade scored, Mullins to second.1–1
- 3Duran singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -116 / TB -104
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 45.3%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -105
- TB +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 22–91st of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–37 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 22–14 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–3 | 30–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 19–24 TB in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 43.