New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero homered to center (420 feet), Domínguez scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.8–3
- 9Rice homered to right (381 feet), McMahon scored.5–3
- 6Schneider homered to center (413 feet).3–3
- 6Volpe singled to left, Schuemann scored, Volpe to second.3–2
- 4Lukes singled to center, Clement scored, Lukes to second, Springer to third.2–2
- 3Okamoto reached on infield single to third, Lukes scored on error, Okamoto safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Rosario.2–1
- 2Sánchez doubled to center, Volpe scored.2–0
- 2Volpe singled to center, Schuemann scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -136 / TOR +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +17 Elo | NYY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 21–1710th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301560 | Elo rating | 15148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–32 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–29 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34–5 | 35–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 23–26 TOR in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.
- Jun 13NYY 3 @ TOR 1Picked NYY 52%Hit
- Jun 12NYY 5 @ TOR 8Picked TOR 53%Hit
- May 21TOR 2 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 57%Miss
- May 20TOR 2 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 60%Miss
- May 19TOR 4 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 54%Hit
- May 18TOR 6 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 8TOR 5 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Miss
- Oct 7TOR 6 @ NYY 9PlayoffsPicked NYY 60%Hit