New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hedges doubled to center, Fairchild scored.8–4
- 7Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Caballero out at second.8–3
- 7Caballero singled to right, Bellinger scored, Grisham to third.7–3
- 6Goldschmidt singled to right, Volpe scored, Sánchez to third.6–3
- 6Volpe doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.5–3
- 6Caballero hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored.4–3
- 4Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to right, Fairchild scored, Hedges to third.3–3
- 4Hedges doubled to right, Bazzana scored, Fairchild to third.3–2
- 2Chisholm Jr. scored on error, Volpe safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Bazzana.3–1
- 2Chisholm Jr. tripled to right, Grisham scored and Caballero scored.2–1
- 1Martínez homered to left (406 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML NYY +101 / CLE -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.1%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301558 | Elo rating | 15139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–31 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–29 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–5 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 18–10 CLE in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.