New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (360 feet).3–2
- 3Martínez reached on infield single to first, DeLauter scored, Hoskins to second, Manzardo to third.2–2
- 3DeLauter singled to center, Ramírez scored.2–1
- 2Jones homered to center (443 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -126 / CLE +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +33 Elo | NYY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 17–1515th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301557 | Elo rating | 15148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–30 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–28 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32–5 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–10 CLE in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.