New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bellinger singled to left, Rice scored and Sánchez scored, Schuemann thrown out at third.7–5
- 8Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Rice out at second.5–5
- 6Martínez homered to right center (414 feet), Fry scored.4–5
- 5McMahon homered to left center (389 feet). challenged call on the field was overturned4–3
- 3Manzardo singled to center, Ramírez scored, DeLauter to third.3–3
- 3Rocchio grounded out to first, Bailey scored.3–2
- 3Kwan scored on Warren wild pitch, Bailey to third on wild pitch by Warren.3–2
- 3Kwan scored on Warren wild pitch, Bailey to third on wild pitch by Warren.3–2
- 3Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Grisham scored on throwing error by shortstop Rocchio, Rice out at second.3–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left (388 feet), Rice scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML NYY +109 / CLE -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE 0 Elo | CLE 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 17–1411th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301556 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–30 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–28 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32–5 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–10 CLE in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.