Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting3-4
- Max ScherzerPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Okamoto hit sacrifice fly to right, Springer scored.7–4
- 7Clement hit sacrifice fly to right, Lukes scored, Springer to third.7–3
- 7Guerrero Jr. walked, Straw scored, Springer to second, Lukes to third.7–2
- 7Stott singled to center, Harper scored, Bohm to second.7–1
- 6Valenzuela singled to right, Clement scored on error, Okamoto to second, Okamoto safe at third on throwing error by right fielder García.6–1
- 4Schwarber homered to right center (423 feet), Crawford scored.6–0
- 3Bohm homered to left center, Schwarber scored and Harper scored.4–0
- 1Harper homered to left (339 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -136 / TOR +113
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −30 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 20–159th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–39 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36–3 | 33–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–5 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.