Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jacob GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6García singled to right, Realmuto scored, Stott to third.6–3
- 6Marsh homered to right center (389 feet).6–2
- 4Bohm homered to left (369 feet).6–1
- 3Gonzalez homered to right (428 feet).6–0
- 3Montgomery homered to right (380 feet).5–0
- 1Peters doubled to right, Montgomery scored.4–0
- 1Gonzalez grounded out to shortstop, Benintendi scored, Montgomery to third.3–0
- 1Meidroth grounded out to third, Vargas scored, Montgomery to second, Benintendi to third.2–0
- 1Benintendi singled to left, Antonacci scored, Vargas to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML CHW +117 / PHI -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.8%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- CHW +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −16 | CHW: Brandon Eisert: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 18–1615th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 26th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 25–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24–2 | 27–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–7 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.