Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner scored on Domínguez wild pitch, Realmuto to second on wild pitch by Domínguez, Harper to third on wild pitch by Domínguez.6–8
- 7Turner scored on Domínguez wild pitch, Realmuto to second on wild pitch by Domínguez, Harper to third on wild pitch by Domínguez.6–8
- 7Sosa hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.6–7
- 7Montgomery singled to right, Meidroth scored.6–6
- 6Hill homered to left center (383 feet).5–6
- 5Grichuk homered to left center (418 feet).4–6
- 4García homered to right center (407 feet).3–6
- 3Grichuk homered to left center (370 feet).3–5
- 2Bohm doubled to left, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Bohm thrown out at third.2–5
- 2Turner grounded into fielder's choice to first, García scored, Schwarber to second.2–3
- 2Marsh homered to center (401 feet), Realmuto scored.2–2
- 2Peters singled to center, Acuña scored.2–0
- 2Acuña doubled to left, Antonacci scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML CHW +157 / PHI -192
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.0%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -169
- CHW +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 17–1616th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 24–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 14–29 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–24–2 | 26–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–6 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.