Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Valenzuela singled to left, Varsho scored.2–3
- 9Straw scored on Duran wild pitch, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Duran.2–2
- 9Straw scored on Duran wild pitch, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Duran.2–2
- 9Stott doubled to left, Harper scored.2–1
- 6Sánchez homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 1Marsh doubled to right, Turner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML PHI -111 / TOR -108
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.4%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 19–1510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–39 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35–3 | 33–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–4 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.