Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Clement homered to left center (399 feet).5–2
- 3Pinango grounded out to first, Straw scored.5–1
- 3Stott walked, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second, Bohm to third.5–0
- 3Realmuto singled to center, Harper scored, Bohm to second, Marsh to third.4–0
- 3Bohm singled to left, Turner scored, Marsh to second, Harper to third.3–0
- 2García homered to left center (406 feet), Stott scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -186 / TOR +153
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- TOR +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 19–148th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–39 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35–2 | 33–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–4 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.