Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- David SandlinPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bohm singled to left, Harper scored, Marsh to third.5–9
- 6Marsh singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.5–8
- 5Crawford grounded into double play, shortstop to first to third, Bohm scored, Stott out at third.5–7
- 5Stott singled to center, Marsh scored, Stott to second, Bohm to third.5–6
- 5Bohm doubled to right, Harper scored, Marsh to third.5–5
- 5Grichuk singled to center, Benintendi scored and Montgomery scored.5–4
- 3Marsh homered to left center (383 feet).3–4
- 3Peters doubled to left, Meidroth scored, Peters to third.3–3
- 2Marchán homered to right center (376 feet), Crawford scored.2–3
- 2Antonacci singled to right, Peters scored, Nishida to second.2–1
- 2Romo hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzalez scored.1–1
- 1Harper doubled to right, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML CHW +143 / PHI -173
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.8%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -154
- CHW +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | CHW: Tyler Gilbert: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +62 Elo | PHI 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 18–1717th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 25–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–25–2 | 27–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–7 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.