New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt homered to left (400 feet), Bellinger scored.3–1
- 4Domínguez homered to right (357 feet).1–1
- 3Okamoto homered to left (352 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -117 / TOR -103
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.1%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -106
- TOR +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301558 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–32 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–29 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33–5 | 35–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 22–26 TOR in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 48.
- Jun 12NYY 5 @ TOR 8Picked TOR 53%Hit
- May 21TOR 2 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 57%Miss
- May 20TOR 2 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 60%Miss
- May 19TOR 4 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 54%Hit
- May 18TOR 6 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 8TOR 5 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Miss
- Oct 7TOR 6 @ NYY 9PlayoffsPicked NYY 60%Hit
- Oct 5NYY 7 @ TOR 13PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Miss