New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clement doubled to right, Springer scored.5–8
- 6Grisham singled to center, Jones scored and Caballero scored, Grisham to second. Toronto Blue Jays challenged call on the field was upheld5–7
- 5Kirk singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–7
- 5Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored.3–6
- 5Bellinger homered to right (350 feet), Rice scored. challenged call on the field was upheld3–5
- 5Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to right, Escarra scored.1–5
- 2Springer homered to left (385 feet), Giménez scored.0–5
- 1Okamoto homered to left (423 feet), Kirk scored.0–3
- 1Kirk doubled to left, Clement scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML NYY +102 / TOR -123
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.1%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 20–1611th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301560 | Elo rating | 15138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–31 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–29 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33–5 | 34–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 22–25 TOR in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 47.
- May 21TOR 2 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 57%Miss
- May 20TOR 2 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 60%Miss
- May 19TOR 4 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 54%Hit
- May 18TOR 6 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 8TOR 5 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Miss
- Oct 7TOR 6 @ NYY 9PlayoffsPicked NYY 60%Hit
- Oct 5NYY 7 @ TOR 13PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Miss
- Oct 4NYY 1 @ TOR 10PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit