Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to right center (400 feet), Contreras scored.3–6
- 8Burger homered to center (421 feet).3–4
- 7Rafaela singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Narváez scored, Monasterio to second.2–4
- 4Helman hit sacrifice fly to right, Jung scored, Duran to third.2–2
- 3Abreu singled to right, Mayer scored, Gasper to third.1–2
- 3Gasper singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Mayer to second.1–1
- 3Langford singled to center, Lopez scored on error, Langford safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Kiner-Falefa.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TEX +108 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- TEX +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 11–2130th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35–7 | 30–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–11 BOS in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.