Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-5
- Jake BennettPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Giménez scored.3–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third, Giménez scored.2–0
- 3Giménez singled to right, Schneider scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML TOR -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −12 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 12–2330th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–36 | 30–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33–4 | 32–35–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 22–21 BOS in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.