Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Springer homered to left center (438 feet), Straw scored.6–1
- 8Duran homered to center (445 feet).4–1
- 6Schneider doubled to center, Okamoto scored, Lukes to third.4–0
- 5Giménez homered to center (413 feet).3–0
- 5Schneider homered to left (419 feet).2–0
- 3Springer hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 12–2230th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–36 | 30–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32–4 | 32–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 21–21 BOS in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 42.