Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abreu singled to right, Yoshida scored.6–4
- 6Contreras homered to left center (392 feet).6–3
- 4Nimmo doubled to center, Osuna scored and Langford scored, Jung to third.6–2
- 2Mayer grounded out to first, Durbin scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.4–2
- 2Contreras homered to left (337 feet).4–1
- 2Higashioka homered to left center (381 feet), Foscue scored and Freeman scored.4–0
- 1Langford homered to left (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TEX -102 / BOS -118
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 12–2130th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–39 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35–7 | 31–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–12 BOS in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.