Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to center (408 feet), Raleigh scored.6–2
- 9Mayer doubled to left, Durbin scored.6–0
- 7Narváez hit sacrifice fly to center, Durbin scored.5–0
- 7Mayer singled to right, Contreras scored and Duran scored, Durbin to second, Mayer to second, Durbin safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Canzone.4–0
- 7Rafaela scored on Castillo wild pitch.2–0
- 7Rafaela scored on Castillo wild pitch.2–0
- 2Durbin homered to left center (367 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML BOS -103 / SEA -117
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.35th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 21–1710th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–42 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37–3 | 36–36–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–9 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.