Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting0-4, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stewart grounded out to third, Dunn scored.2–1
- 10Mitchell scored on Santillan wild pitch.2–0
- 10Mitchell scored on Santillan wild pitch.2–0
- 10Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored, Mitchell to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -156 / CIN +129
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −12 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +80 Elo | MIL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–32 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–38–3 | 45–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 27–12 CIN in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 39.