Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pratt singled to right, Frelick scored, Perkins to third.4–9
- 8Vaughn doubled to left, Contreras scored, Frelick to third.4–8
- 4Chourio homered to right (366 feet), Hamilton scored.4–7
- 4Schneemann homered to right (386 feet), Bazzana scored, Manzardo scored and Rocchio scored.4–5
- 2Turang doubled to left, Yelich scored.0–5
- 2Yelich singled to center, Pratt scored, Yelich to second.0–4
- 1Frelick doubled to center, Bauers scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Yelich homered to left center (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML CLE +104 / MIL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +51 Elo | MIL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 24–145th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15653rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–36 | 40–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 24–23 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–38 | 32–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–7 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.