Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio singled to left, Rengifo scored, Vaughn to second.9–8
- 8Yelich hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored.9–7
- 8Mitchell scored on Keller wild pitch, Rengifo to second on wild pitch by Keller, Frelick to third on wild pitch by Keller.9–6
- 8Mitchell scored on Keller wild pitch, Rengifo to second on wild pitch by Keller, Frelick to third on wild pitch by Keller.9–6
- 8Marsh singled to center, Harper scored, Bohm to third.9–5
- 7Chourio homered to center (410 feet), Yelich scored.8–5
- 6Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Hill scored.8–3
- 6Realmuto homered to left center (416 feet), Sosa scored and Stott scored.7–3
- 6Stott doubled to right, Marsh scored, Sosa to third.4–3
- 5Chourio homered to center (410 feet).3–3
- 4Mitchell homered to center (425 feet), Contreras scored.3–2
- 4Realmuto singled to right, Stott scored.3–0
- 4Stott doubled to right, Marsh scored.2–0
- 2Sosa homered to right center (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML PHI +137 / MIL -166
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.0%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -148
- PHI +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 22–135th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–40 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–30 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–37–3 | 31–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–11 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.