Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 15 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chourio singled to center, Ortiz scored.0–6
- 5Bauers homered to left center (391 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.0–5
- 2Mitchell scored on Painter wild pitch.0–2
- 2Mitchell scored on Painter wild pitch.0–2
- 1Contreras doubled to right, Yelich scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 69%
- ML PHI +209 / MIL -259
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.5%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -223
- PHI +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +13 | PHI: Tanner Banks: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +81 Elo | MIL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 21–135th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15612nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–39 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–30 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36–3 | 31–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–10 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.