Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mitchell homered to right center (440 feet).1–2
- 7Arias singled to right, Fairchild scored, Arias to second.1–1
- 4Turang homered to right center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML CLE +129 / MIL -156
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- CLE +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +59 Elo | MIL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 23–146th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15643rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–36 | 40–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 32–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–6 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.