Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Perkins homered to left center (399 feet), Sánchez scored and Rengifo scored.0–4
- 1Chourio homered to center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -131 / MIL +108
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 44.6%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- MIL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 3.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +3 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 22–146th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 39–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–30 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37–3 | 32–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–11 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.