Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson homered to center (416 feet).2–3
- 6Kwan singled to center, Martínez scored.1–3
- 3Outman homered to right center (418 feet).1–2
- 2Rocchio tripled to right, Bailey scored.0–2
- 2Bailey singled to left, Hoskins scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML DET +104 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 17–1718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–37 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33–4 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–27 CLE in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.
- May 21CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 54%Miss
- May 20CLE 3 @ DET 2Picked CLE 51%Hit
- May 19CLE 4 @ DET 3Picked CLE 59%Hit
- May 18CLE 8 @ DET 2Picked DET 59%Miss
- Oct 2DET 6 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Miss
- Oct 1DET 1 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Hit
- Sep 30DET 2 @ CLE 1PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Hit
- Sep 25DET 4 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 59%Miss