Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez homered to left center (401 feet), Rogers scored.0–11
- 8McKinstry homered to right (374 feet).0–9
- 7Greene homered to left (356 feet).0–8
- 6Keith homered to right center (419 feet), Carpenter scored.0–7
- 5Torres homered to right (368 feet).0–5
- 4Torkelson homered to left (371 feet), Keith scored.0–4
- 4Keith singled to right, Dingler scored.0–2
- 1Greene hit sacrifice fly to center, McGonigle scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MIN +108 / DET -131
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 55.1%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 28th of 301468 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–34 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–24–6 | 31–33–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 22–23 DET in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.