Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler singled to left, Pérez scored, Torres to second.6–4
- 7Lee scored on Sommers wild pitch, Lewis to second on wild pitch by Sommers, Bell to third on wild pitch by Sommers.6–3
- 7Lee scored on Sommers wild pitch, Lewis to second on wild pitch by Sommers, Bell to third on wild pitch by Sommers.6–3
- 7Bell singled to center, Martin scored, Lee to second.5–3
- 5Carpenter singled to right, McGonigle scored and McKinstry scored, Torres to third.4–3
- 5Buxton homered to left center (413 feet), Jackson scored and Martin scored.4–1
- 3Torres doubled to right, McGonigle scored.1–1
- 2Lewis homered to left center (444 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML MIN +141 / DET -171
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- DET: Elo 53.7%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 5.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | MIN: Mike Paredes (no track record yet) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 17–1515th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301466 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–34 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 38–24–6 | 30–33–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–23 DET in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 44.