Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres singled to left, Greene scored and Torkelson scored, McKinstry to third.4–10
- 6Dingler homered to left (367 feet), McKinstry scored and Torres scored.4–8
- 5Carpenter homered to right (365 feet), Dingler scored.4–5
- 5Clemens homered to right (346 feet).4–3
- 5Lee homered to right (364 feet).3–3
- 3Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, McGonigle scored.2–3
- 3Bell homered to left center (375 feet).2–2
- 2Greene homered to left (367 feet).1–2
- 1Dingler homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 1Buxton homered to left center (428 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML MIN +116 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 57.9%, market 55.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +22 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +56 Elo | DET 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301469 | Elo rating | 148619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–33 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24–6 | 29–33–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–22 DET in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 43.