Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Elmer RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte hit a ground rule double, Steer scored.4–1
- 4Stephenson homered to left center (401 feet), Lowe scored and Marte scored.3–1
- 3Rice homered to right center (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML CIN -102 / NYY -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −9 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Elmer Rodriguez: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +63 Elo | NYY 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 22–146th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15613rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–36 | 41–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 45–29–1 | 34–36–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–5 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.