Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero homered to left (351 feet).2–12
- 6Acuña reached on infield single to third, Peters scored, Benintendi to second, Pereira to third.2–11
- 4Jones scored on error, Escarra safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Murphy, Escarra safe at second on error, McMahon safe at third on error.1–11
- 4McMahon singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Jones to third.1–10
- 4Goldschmidt homered to left (390 feet), Bellinger scored.1–9
- 4Rice homered to right (371 feet), Escarra scored.1–7
- 3Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.1–5
- 3Jones walked, Rice scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Bellinger to third. Chicago White Sox challenged call on the field was upheld1–4
- 3Bellinger singled to right, Escarra scored and Volpe scored, Rice to second.1–3
- 2Jones homered to right.1–1
- 1Benintendi homered to right center.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML CHW +124 / NYY -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +87 Elo | NYY 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 19–127th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–33 | 38–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 30–29 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 41–27–2 | 31–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–13 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.