Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching8.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peters homered to right (388 feet).7–1
- 8Muncy homered to center (409 feet), Betts scored.7–0
- 6Tucker walked, Ohtani scored, Muncy to second, Pages to third.5–0
- 3Tucker singled to right, Betts scored, Muncy to third.4–0
- 1Muncy homered to right center (415 feet), Betts scored.3–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -205 / CHW +168
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -180
- CHW +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −13 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +105 Elo | LAD 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.26th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 23–112nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–33 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–32 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38–1 | 40–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–2 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.