Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge MateoBatting2-4
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luisangel AcunaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mateo scored on error, Albies safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Vargas, Albies safe at second on error.1–2
- 4Acuña grounded out to pitcher, Hill scored.0–2
- 4Hill singled to center, B. Montgomery scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -149 / CHW +123
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +15 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 21–113rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301546 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–24 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–20 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30–4 | 39–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–6 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.