Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10B. Montgomery homered to left (343 feet), Benintendi scored.5–6
- 10Dubón singled to right, Albies scored, Dubón to second.5–4
- 7Gonzalez singled to right, Vargas scored, Benintendi to second.4–4
- 4B. Montgomery singled to left, Gonzalez scored, Meidroth to second.4–3
- 3Vargas homered to left (377 feet), Antonacci scored.4–2
- 3Smith grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop first, Albies scored, Smith to first on error by pitcher Fedde, Dubón out at second.4–0
- 3Olson homered to left center (402 feet).3–0
- 1Olson homered to right center (411 feet), Harris II scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -157 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.8%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -141
- CHW +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Brandon Eisert: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–10 | Road vs home | 20–114th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 4th of 301548 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–23 | 33–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–19 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30–4 | 38–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.