Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Santiago EspinalBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Peters tripled to center, B. Montgomery scored and Meidroth scored.2–8
- 5Meidroth singled to right, C. Montgomery scored and Vargas scored, B. Montgomery to second.2–6
- 5B. Montgomery walked, Antonacci scored, C. Montgomery to second, Vargas to third.2–4
- 5Vargas doubled to right, Romo scored, Antonacci to third.2–3
- 5Antonacci singled to right, Peters scored, Romo to third.2–2
- 2Espinal singled to left, Rojas scored and Tucker scored, Muncy to second.2–1
- 1Benintendi homered to right (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -156 / CHW +129
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 22–112nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301577 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–32 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–31 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38–1 | 39–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–1 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.