Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeland doubled to right, Ward scored.4–6
- 8Betts homered to left (369 feet).3–6
- 7Freeland hit sacrifice fly to center, Rushing scored.2–6
- 6Meidroth homered to right (366 feet), B. Montgomery scored.1–6
- 6C. Montgomery homered to right (410 feet), Benintendi scored.1–4
- 6Benintendi doubled to right, Vargas scored.1–2
- 6Antonacci homered to right (415 feet).1–1
- 1Freeman homered to right (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -199 / CHW +163
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.8%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −9 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +76 Elo | LAD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 23–123rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–33 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–32 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–39–1 | 40–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–2 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.