Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 6 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bellinger scored. Domínguez out at second. Caballero advances to second on throwing error by second baseman Arroyo.10–2
- 8Myers doubled to left, Stewart scored.10–1
- 8Stewart doubled to center, Dunn scored, Trevino scored and Arroyo scored.9–1
- 5Steer homered to left center (407 feet), Bleday scored and Lowe scored.6–1
- 5Stewart hit sacrifice fly to left, Dunn scored.3–1
- 3Stewart doubled to left, Dunn scored and Arroyo scored.2–1
- 1Goldschmidt homered to right center (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML CIN +164 / NYY -201
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.8%, market 63.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -176
- CIN +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 5.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +91 Elo | NYY 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 22–135th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 41–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 44–29–1 | 33–36–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–5 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.