Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to center, Groover scored.5–3
- 8Moreno homered to right (353 feet).4–3
- 6Marte homered to left center (448 feet).3–3
- 6Perdomo homered to right (400 feet), Vargas scored.3–2
- 3Suárez doubled to right, Lowe scored.1–2
- 3Troy homered to left (355 feet).1–1
- 1Bleday homered to right center.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML ARI -111 / CIN -109
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.2%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -101
- CIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–31 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36–5 | 42–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–10 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.