Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to left center (413 feet).1–2
- 3Arroyo singled to right, McLain scored.1–1
- 1Carroll homered to right center (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML ARI -144 / CIN +119
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.8%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.829th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 147926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–30 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35–5 | 42–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–9 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.