Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jordan LawlarBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lawlar singled to right, Vargas scored and Perdomo scored.5–2
- 9Moreno scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Dunn, Perdomo safe at second on error, Vargas safe at third on error.3–2
- 6Groover singled to center, Lawlar scored.2–2
- 3Suárez singled to center, Steer scored on throwing error by center fielder Lawlar, Suárez to second. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–2
- 3Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored, Moreno to second, Carroll to third.1–1
- 2Marte homered to center (427 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML ARI -105 / CIN -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.9%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | 0 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +15 Elo | ARI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.829th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–30 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34–5 | 42–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–9 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.