Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Antonacci homered to right center (422 feet).5–10
- 8C. Montgomery homered to center (412 feet).4–10
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (398 feet).3–10
- 5Goldschmidt homered to right (349 feet), Volpe scored and Sánchez scored.3–9
- 5Caballero singled to right, Bellinger scored and Domínguez scored.3–6
- 3C. Montgomery homered to right center (384 feet), Meidroth scored and Grichuk scored.3–4
- 2Sánchez singled to right, Volpe scored.0–4
- 2Volpe tripled to center, Caballero scored.0–3
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (363 feet), Rosario scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML CHW +157 / NYY -192
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.1%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -169
- CHW +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +101 Elo | NYY 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 20–126th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 27th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15653rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–34 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 31–29 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 42–27–2 | 32–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–14 NYY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.