New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting3-5
- Jonathan PintaroPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bleday homered to right center (365 feet), McLain scored and Stephenson scored.0–12
- 2Suárez homered to center (406 feet), Arroyo scored, Bleday scored and Stewart scored.0–9
- 2Stewart singled to right, Stephenson scored, Bleday to second, Arroyo to third.0–5
- 2Bleday walked, McLain scored, Arroyo to second, Stephenson to third. New York Mets challenged call on the field was upheld0–4
- 1Suárez homered to left center (376 feet), Stewart scored.0–3
- 1Steer grounded out to third, Dunn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML NYM +113 / CIN -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +19 | NYM: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.829th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–39 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33–7 | 42–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–12 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.