St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to right center (398 feet).4–5
- 5Young singled to center, Soto scored, Young to second.4–4
- 2Crooks homered to right (374 feet), Winn scored.4–3
- 2Nootbaar homered to right center (445 feet).2–3
- 1Young homered to right center (390 feet).1–3
- 1Bichette homered to left center (378 feet), Benge scored.1–2
- 1Burleson homered to right (424 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML STL +122 / NYM -148
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.7%, market 57.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -132
- STL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–25 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–4 | 29–32–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–14 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.