St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.7–0
- 5Burleson homered to left center (378 feet), Herrera scored.6–0
- 3Nootbaar grounded out to second, Herrera scored, Walker to third.4–0
- 3Walker doubled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.3–0
- 3Wetherholt singled to center, Gorman scored and Church scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML STL +113 / NYM -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +33 Elo | NYM 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–25 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32–4 | 28–31–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–14 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.