St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson homered to right center (408 feet).9–2
- 5Fermín singled to right, Church scored.8–2
- 4Alvarez homered to left (368 feet), Ewing scored.7–2
- 4Walker homered to center (401 feet), Wetherholt scored and Herrera scored.7–0
- 3Velázquez homered to left center (403 feet), Winn scored.4–0
- 1Winn grounded into fielder's choice to second, Herrera scored, Nootbaar out at second, Walker to third.2–0
- 1Walker singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML STL +113 / NYM -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Austin Warren: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–25 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 31–16 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–33–4 | 28–32–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–14 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.