Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-3
- Bryce ElderPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto singled to center, Benge scored and Bichette scored.1–8
- 5Semien homered to center (403 feet).1–6
- 5Ewing homered to right (361 feet).1–5
- 1Baty singled to center, Ewing scored.1–4
- 1Ewing doubled to left, Soto scored on error and Young scored on throwing error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Ewing to third.1–3
- 1Young singled to center, Bichette scored, Soto to third.1–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Harris II scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML ATL +113 / NYM -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–13 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–26 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–21 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32–4 | 30–33–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 26–15 NYM in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 41.